Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
